Thinking In Bets Pdf Github Jun 2026

The world champion poker player turned decision-making expert Annie Duke starts one of her most famous examples not at a card table, but at the 2015 Super Bowl. With less than a minute left, the Seattle Seahawks head coach, Pete Carroll, called for a passing play from the one-yard line. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. The sports world erupted, calling it one of the worst play calls in football history.

Decision-making is a complex process that involves evaluating options, assessing risks, and choosing the best course of action. In an uncertain world, decision-making is even more challenging, as outcomes are often probabilistic rather than deterministic. Humans have a tendency to rely on intuition and cognitive shortcuts, which can lead to suboptimal decisions. Thinking in Bets is a concept that encourages individuals to approach decision-making from a probabilistic perspective, similar to how professional poker players think about bets.

Thinking in Bets: Key Write-up Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets thinking in bets pdf github

Making smart choices is difficult when the future is completely unpredictable. Most people judge the quality of a decision by its final outcome. If a choice leads to a bad result, they assume it was a bad choice. This flawed logic is what poker champion Annie Duke calls "resulting" in her groundbreaking book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts .

What specific (e.g., software engineering, management, investing) are you looking to apply these concepts to? The sports world erupted, calling it one of

Imagine a future where everything went perfectly. Identify the exact steps required to achieve that positive outcome.

In an uncertain world, decision-making is a crucial aspect of our personal and professional lives. However, humans are prone to cognitive biases and often rely on intuition rather than probabilistic thinking. "Thinking in Bets" is a concept popularized by Annie Duke, a professional poker player, which involves making decisions by thinking in probabilities rather than certainties. This paper explores the concept of Thinking in Bets, its application in decision-making, and its relevance to uncertainty and probabilistic thinking. We also provide a GitHub repository with Python code examples to illustrate the concepts discussed in the paper. Humans have a tendency to rely on intuition

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Before launching a project, imagine it has failed spectacularly one year in the future. Write down the history of that failure. This uncovers hidden risks you would otherwise ignore.

We are terrible at spotting our own biases, but excellent at spotting them in others. Duke advises forming a "truth-seeking group"—a small circle of friends or colleagues who agree to hold each other accountable, call out cognitive blind spots, and focus on objective reality rather than emotional validation. How to Apply "Thinking in Bets" to Your Daily Life Traditional Thinking (Resulting) Betting Thinking (Probabilistic)